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You are here: Home / Uncategorized / Historical Bias

Historical Bias

by mwabbott Leave a Comment

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” George Santayana 

There is a lot of truth in the well-worn quote and I also think that there is a trap in this thinking.

What you probably hear is: We can’t try X, we tried that Y years ago and it was a total failure. Half of this statement is true, it probably was a failure. If you tried it again, would all of the conditions that led to failure repeat themselves? Why are we so good at recognizing loss or failures? 

History

History is a rich resource for understanding our species, our patterns, and the obstacles we have created for ourselves. History is great for studying failures, philosophies, finding inspiration, and overcoming some important cultural narratives. 

History is a poor yardstick for the future. There are a lot of factors that make our present, and future, very different from the past. Technology has thrust us into exponential times. Peter Diamandis has droves of interesting thoughts, articles, and books about this very topic. 

Climate change is the other half of the equation that negates many historical narratives. The present isn’t like the recent past, much less regional histories. We lean on our shakey memories of last winter, our grandma’s garden, summers at the lake, and use these memories for decisions about the present. For generations, this has been an effective crutch. Building a building for the historical climate and conditions was okay. Designing a business dependent on seasonal supply chains or stable regional populations was sound. We can’t count on the past the way that we could. 

We all have to practice thinking further out, and ironically, sometimes the best way to build that muscle is looking back.

Starting Over

The English language is full of idioms about starting over. Get back on the horse. Turn over a new leaf. On the wagon. Make a fresh start. Start from scratch. 

We’ve all started over, in our lives, sometimes from the beginning. Whether it was a document that failed to save, a relationship that didn’t work out, a career that wasn’t a fit, or maybe a dish you left in the oven.

Yet, there is a lot of resistance to trying sustainability projects again. I have heard we tried that before for:

  • Solar PV
  • Energy Efficiency
  • Water Efficiency
  • Recycling
  • Compost
  • Fleet Upgrades
  • Fuel switching
  • LEED Buildings

You name it, it’s been done before, it’s failed. 

You name it, it’s been done before, it’s worked.

I don’t layout this dichotomy to convince you that mindset is the difference between a successful project or a failed project (although, it can be) or to expound on the universal benefits of The Secret😉 I am drawing attention to this feedback because it demonstrates two important things:

  1. Whatever you are pitching is eliciting fear
  2. You need to manage this fear and mitigate project risks

Silver Lining

We’re entering the largest migration of humans our species has ever experienced. 80% of our population lives at sea level and every system you can think of is going to experience radical changes. Thankfully, technology will be there to help us wherever we can leverage it. Hundreds of years of research, development, and growth have us the most prepared we ever could be.

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